October 31, 2026 — More than 43 million Americans had voted early in person or returned mail ballots five days before the November 3 midterm elections, according to an Associated Press analysis. That is nearly 10 million more votes than at the comparable point in 2022, although the state coverage differs slightly between years.
Where early voting is rising
Texas recorded more than 6.3 million early votes as of October 28, compared with about 4.2 million at the equivalent stage in 2022, an increase of roughly 50%. AP also reported sizable increases in Maine, Kansas, Michigan and South Carolina, all states with significant contests.
What the numbers can—and cannot—tell us
Early-vote totals measure participation, not candidate support. Even where voter registration by party is available, registration does not disclose how anyone voted. Strong early turnout also does not necessarily mean overall turnout will rise by the same amount: some voters may simply have voted earlier than in previous elections.
Why the midterms matter
Voters will determine the makeup of the House of Representatives and Senate, along with numerous state and local offices. Congress can shape legislation, spending, oversight and confirmation of presidential nominees. For background, read our guide to what is at stake in the final week and our explanation of how polling relates to congressional control.
What voters should check before November 3
Voting rules, mail-ballot deadlines and polling hours vary by state. Confirm the details with your state or local election office rather than relying on viral posts. Our Election Day voter checklist explains the practical steps.
What happens next
Election-night projections are not official certified results. Close races can take longer as eligible ballots are counted under state law. TheBriefLens will distinguish verified turnout statistics, projections and certified outcomes as results become available.
Source: Associated Press, October 30, 2026.
