Quick answer: Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win a Senate majority. Recent polls show several close races, including Texas, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska and Kansas. Many margins are within the polling error, so control of the chamber is genuinely uncertain.
The Math
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats would need to flip four seats without losing any of their own to reach 51. Here are the races drawing the most attention, based on polls reported in the past week.
Texas
Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has led Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in recent surveys. A CBS News poll released October 18 showed him ahead 51 to 49, and a University of Houston poll reported October 19 had him up 48 to 46, according to Forbes’ polling tracker.
Maine
A Suffolk University poll reported October 14 had Democrat Troy Jackson ahead of Republican Sen. Susan Collins, 49 percent to 47 percent.
Ohio
A Bowling Green/YouGov poll found former Sen. Sherrod Brown leading incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted 48 to 42.
Iowa
Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek have traded small leads in polls since the June primaries, and forecasts generally rate the race as leaning Republican.
Alaska, Kansas and North Carolina
- Alaska: Democrat Mary Peltola was ahead 50 to 49 in a Fox News poll.
- Kansas: A New York Times/Siena poll had Sen. Roger Marshall ahead of Democrat Adam Hamilton 47 to 46, and the Cook Political Report moved the race to toss-up.
- North Carolina: Cook moved the race from lean Democratic to likely Democratic.
What to Remember
- Single polls have margins of error, and several races sit inside them.
- Averages are more reliable than one survey.
- Polls can miss in the same direction across many states.
See the midterm overview for the national picture and our guide to why forecasts disagree.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which Senate race is closest?
Several are within one or two points, including Texas, Maine, Kansas and Alaska, depending on the poll.
Can polls change quickly?
Yes. New surveys come out daily, so check updated averages before drawing conclusions.
Sources consulted: Forbes polling updates (October 14-19, 2026), Yahoo News, Pollsmax. Poll results change quickly.