Published October 28, 2026. The decision is scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern; check the Federal Reserve’s website for the official statement.
The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day policy meeting today, and the Fed interest rate decision is expected to be a pause. Forecasts point to the central bank leaving its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00%, with attention turning to whether it raises rates again in December.
Where rates stand
The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% at its July 29 meeting, then raised them by a quarter of a percentage point at its September 15–16 meeting to the current range, according to Norada Real Estate’s rate outlook. That reversed expectations that rates would drift lower this year.
What markets expect today
- A hold: One market-odds summary put the chance of a hold at 87%, with a 13% chance of a quarter-point hike and less than 1% for a cut. A separate savings-focused preview from Raisin cited market pricing of 91% for a hold.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: Speaking at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok on October 16, he declined to preview the decision.
What comes next
Attention is on December, the last meeting of the year. Raisin reported that nearly 73% of financial markets and all surveyed economists expect another hike then. At the September meeting, the median Fed official projected the federal funds rate would end 2026 at 4.1%, up from 3.8% in June’s projections. The next inflation report is due November 10, after this meeting.
What it means for your money
- Savings and CDs: When the Fed holds, variable savings yields and CD rates generally stay firm.
- Loans and credit cards: Variable-rate borrowing costs track the Fed’s moves more closely.
- Mortgages: The Fed does not set mortgage rates directly. For background on borrowing costs, read our explainer on mortgage insurance and refinance costs.
Forecasts can change quickly, and the actual decision may differ from expectations. This is general information, not investment advice.
